HKHSI and NASDAQ Downturn (5/5/2000)

Major Correction in the Horizon (4/15/2000)

Prof. Kai Keung Mark is a retired professor, Dept. of Biology, The Chinese University of Hong Kong and Dept. Head and Principal Lecturer, Dept. of Science, Hong Kong Institute of Education. He has three biotechnology patents. He uses his understanding of high technology to forecast market movements . He has published 13 articles in Financial Trend, and leading Hong Kong stock analysis journal plus many other Mark's letters since 1987. His prediction reliability rate reached 80%. He accurately predicted the October crash (10/18/87), the bottom level of 1990(3/5/90), the peak level of 1994 (5/11/92), the peak level of 1997 (2/12/96), the peak level of 2,000 (8/22/99), the peak in March 2000 (2/20/2000), the bottom in September, 2001, the US bottom in 2003 (5/28/2003), the HK bottom in 2003 (6/13/2003), the US peak in 2007 (11/14/2007), and the HK peak in 2007 (1/9/2008).

Downward Slide and Bull Ahead 

(June 13,  2000)

1. I am proud to state that all predictions and suggestions given on May 23 (mark 3) have been confirmed or validated. If the reader bought the tips to buy on low volume or on breaking the fan line (fan line II, point 4) upside, he should have made big gains equals to HSI 2,000 points. If he did, he should have cash in by now (point 5), however the up shoot is more than my expectation.
   
2. The next question is what to expect next. My prediction is a long, slow but steady downward slide.
   
3. The movement would follow the fan line III just as it has been following fan line I and II. The fan line III is drawn from the march peak of 18,400 and the corrective peak of June slightly above 16,000 (same principle for fan line II given in point 4 in my previous article on May 23).
   
4. Please note that fan line I, II, III (see chart below) decrease their slope in succession. This imply that the rate of drop during fan line III would be slower than observed during the period covered in fan line I and II.
   
5. Because the drop is slow, it takes longer to drop a certain number of points, therefore fan line III usually is quite long.
   
6. When fan line III is broken upside, the bear run will end. At this stage, one can see that although the major up channel is broken, and a bear market has established, this bear market is not a severe one, so one can treat this bear market as a major correction of the existing bull market, and the next bull run is not too far away.