HKHSI and NASDAQ Downturn (5/5/2000)

Major Correction in the Horizon (4/15/2000)

Prof. Kai Keung Mark is a retired professor, Dept. of Biology, The Chinese University of Hong Kong and Dept. Head and Principal Lecturer, Dept. of Science, Hong Kong Institute of Education. He has three biotechnology patents. He uses his understanding of high technology to forecast market movements . He has published 13 articles in Financial Trend, and leading Hong Kong stock analysis journal plus many other Mark's letters since 1987. His prediction reliability rate reached 80%. He accurately predicted the October crash (10/18/87), the bottom level of 1990(3/5/90), the peak level of 1994 (5/11/92), the peak level of 1997 (2/12/96), the peak level of 2,000 (8/22/99), the peak in March 2000 (2/20/2000), the bottom in September, 2001, the US bottom in 2003 (5/28/2003), the HK bottom in 2003 (6/13/2003), the US peak in 2007 (11/14/2007), and the HK peak in 2007 (1/9/2008).

Dow Returns to Bull

The author, in his last article (May 15, 2004), has successfully made the forecast that DJIA's low point to be around 9800-9900 which did happen on May (see fig. 1). He also presented a good correction channel (May 15, 2004) which provide a good system for forecast. Using this channel, it also explain why DJIA peaks on 10,432 pts. on June 8th. Base on this well tested correction channel, DJIA has broken this correction channel up side (see fig. 1) which imply that the correction mode will end as forecast in the last article (May 15, 2004). The author expects that DJIA will make new high (above 10,700 pts.) in a few months time.

NASDAQ also give similar signal that US stock market will move upward, but the chart express it in a different form (see fig. 2 ). Between Jan.- March, NASDAQ produced a perfect down channel, with the upper return line also became the fan line I (see fig. 2 ). When this fan line I was broken upside, it developed into fan line II with three contact points. Now this fan line II was broken up side again (see fig. 2), and confirmed the DJIA's signal that the US stock market will move upward.

HSI produced fan line I and fan line II (see fig. 3) during this correction mode after the 14,000 pts peak. HSI did break this fan line II upside indicating that the downward trend has ended. Above this fan line II, HSI did made a dramatic drop, hitting this fan line II from above, but close above it. One can call this a Kiss Good Bye (KG) which appear frequently under the author's article series.

Looking at a bigger picture, the author perceived the likely trend of HSI in its next up move, and this provide support for the earlier forecast that HSI will reach 15,000 pts (April 1, 2004). With this big picture in mind, HSI may reach 15,000 pts before the end of this year (see fig. 4).