HKHSI and NASDAQ Downturn (5/5/2000)

Major Correction in the Horizon (4/15/2000)

Prof. Kai Keung Mark is a retired professor, Dept. of Biology, The Chinese University of Hong Kong and Dept. Head and Principal Lecturer, Dept. of Science, Hong Kong Institute of Education. He has three biotechnology patents. He uses his understanding of high technology to forecast market movements . He has published 13 articles in Financial Trend, and leading Hong Kong stock analysis journal plus many other Mark's letters since 1987. His prediction reliability rate reached 80%. He accurately predicted the October crash (10/18/87), the bottom level of 1990(3/5/90), the peak level of 1994 (5/11/92), the peak level of 1997 (2/12/96), the peak level of 2,000 (8/22/99), the peak in March 2000 (2/20/2000), the bottom in September, 2001, the US bottom in 2003 (5/28/2003), the HK bottom in 2003 (6/13/2003), the US peak in 2007 (11/14/2007), and the HK peak in 2007 (1/9/2008).

HSI to break through 12,000 soon

The author has proposed that HSI to reach 14,000 in mid year (1/9/02), and the recent up turn has made this out look more solid. This up turn (see fig. 1) can be viewed as the beginning of the second wave of the up moves, which will have its final peak near 13,500-14,000 as predicted in the last article (1/9/02). The completion of the first up move allows the author to produce the up channel (see fig. 1), and with this allow the author to perceive the timing of the next peak more precisely. Now the peak of the second wave should appear around July 2002 with a very high trading volume, and might form small double tops or small head and shoulders turn signals for the following down turn forming the right shoulder suggested in the last article (1/9/02). As HSI move upwards, it will soon break the 12,000 pt. barrier, which is the resistant range of the last peak (of the first up move). His long term forecast of HSI reaching twenty thousand points by 2003 (11/1/01) is looking more likely than before with the rosy outlook in US market, and all the technical and fundamental reasons given in the last article (1/9/02) are still valid.

On the Chinese market forecast, the author's forecast (11/19/01) is 90% correct. The Chinese A market did produced a correction (but not as big as the author expects), and the forecast was very accurate in predicting that: "after this rise, another down turn take place to drop to a level lower than the lowest points now recorded to produce the second fan line (fan line II)." Now this fan line II was broken up side, and this implies that another up wave is coming (see fig. 2). Hopefully, this up move is bigger than the last (on Nov. 2001). As bear has haunted the Chinese market since July 2001, bull should return to Chinese market in the later half of this year.

Since the author has been able to make accurate forecast of the Chinese markets publicly, the financial institutions of the west can also do so privately, so it is wise for Premier Zhu Rongji not to open up the Chinese stock markets to the west after China entered WTO.