Prof. Kai Keung Mark is a retired
professor, Dept. of Biology, The Chinese University of Hong
Kong and Dept. Head and Principal Lecturer, Dept. of Science, Hong Kong
Institute of Education. He has three biotechnology patents. He uses his
understanding of high technology to forecast market movements . He has
published 13 articles in Financial Trend, and leading Hong Kong stock
analysis journal plus many other Mark's letters since 1987. His prediction
reliability rate reached 80%. He accurately predicted the October crash
(10/18/87), the bottom level of 1990(3/5/90), the peak level of 1994
(5/11/92), the peak level of 1997 (2/12/96), the peak level of 2,000
(8/22/99), the peak in March 2000 (2/20/2000), the bottom in September,
2001, the US bottom in 2003 (5/28/2003), the HK bottom in 2003 (6/13/2003),
the US peak in 2007 (11/14/2007), and the HK peak in 2007 (1/9/2008).
History is a mirror-
August 14, 20001
My two articles (4/28/2001 and 7/5/2001) on Chinese stock market movements are
very accurate. The Chinese stock markets of Shenzhen and Shanghai both plunged
like a rock, and reach the neckline level exactly as predicted.
The technical features are also amazing in that both market
produced the kiss goodbye formation (KG) after the index broke the down side of
the wedge formation (see Fig. 1 and Fig. 3). The index after breaking the
wedge's lower line, the support line, and drop further, and come back up to
touch this line which now turn into a resistant line (standard rule), and then
go back down in another plunge. This is a classical technical behavior, and I
called it kiss goodbye formation (KG).
Part of the reason that the author can predict this so
precisely is because he has no involvement in Chinese market, and thus can look
at it with a clear and analytical mind, and perceive the situation from a cool distance.
Just as being forecasted not long ago by the author using
his knowledge in stock behavior, he did the same and perceive the future of the
Chinese markets as follows:
The author expects that the neck line (NL) will have enough support for both
markets in the first attack, so the down move of the index will be stopped at
the NL level, and then bounce again. The neckline level for Shanghai composite
index is just 1900 points. The top
formation do have symmetry features, so Shanghai composite index (see Fig. 2)
will produce two right shoulders above the neck line in symmetry to the two
left shoulders. The Shenzhen A index (not shown) will behave similarly. This
prediction implies that the Chinese stock market will have a long horizontal
movement between the top level and the neckline level. So it will take
considerable trading time to turn around the market mood. But when the index do
drop below the neckline level, the down move can be fast and devastating, and
will dwarf the down plunge that the Chinese are now experiencing.
This forecast is in great contrast to the popular believe that market movements
are base on everyday news but not its history, which has long been accounted
for. The rules behind this forecast imply that there is an invisible hand
controlling these formations. The future is a reflection of the past.
The information above is
by the author specially for InTechTra's Hong Kong Stocks Report.
opinions in this special column is solely that of the author and
may not represent the views of Hong Kong Stocks Report. InTechTra
indemnified for any damage or loss that might be associated with
of the information.