HKHSI and NASDAQ Downturn (5/5/2000)

Major Correction in the Horizon (4/15/2000)

Prof. Kai Keung Mark is a retired professor, Dept. of Biology, The Chinese University of Hong Kong and Dept. Head and Principal Lecturer, Dept. of Science, Hong Kong Institute of Education. He has three biotechnology patents. He uses his understanding of high technology to forecast market movements . He has published 13 articles in Financial Trend, and leading Hong Kong stock analysis journal plus many other Mark's letters since 1987. His prediction reliability rate reached 80%. He accurately predicted the October crash (10/18/87), the bottom level of 1990(3/5/90), the peak level of 1994 (5/11/92), the peak level of 1997 (2/12/96), the peak level of 2,000 (8/22/99), the peak in March 2000 (2/20/2000), and the bottom in September, 2001.

Major Correction in the Horizon

April 15, 2000

Professor K. K. Mark is making another prediction of a major correction by the following reasoning:

1.There were three upturns from August 1998 to Feb 2000, the last of which should be a signal of major correction as verified by the experience in the last 20 years.

2. The third wave is forming a double head peaking at 17360 and neckline around 14900. If there is no support at the neckline, HSI could drop to 12440.

3. Historical volume between Feb 10-15 is a sign of peaking. The same happened in 1994 and 1997.

4. Minor shares rise abruptly, keep doubling. This is a sign of the end of bull season. The same also happened in 1994 and 1997.

5. Along with the rise of minor stocks and information stocks, blue chips have been falling. Peaking of blue chips is a sign of bear market.

6. Increase in fluctuation in the last month or so indicates the end of bull market.

The heavy correction is now already seen in US market on April 13-14. Hong Kong market usually follows in synchrony. However, the economy of Hong Kong is just in the recovering stage and the major correction in US market is regarded as a healthy way to bring the market into a more realistic valuation. This should not be considered the sign of depression.