Author: Martin Su
Date: 05-28-12 19:49
1. The Serbs shot down a state-of-the-art F-117 stealth fighter in 1999.
2. Chinese military technology, funding, low-band radars, supercomputing power, and network defenses are magnitudes beyond what the Serbs were capable. The integration of a variety of low-band radars, bi-static radars, multi-static radars, airborne AWACS, triangulation, tracking through "statistical averaging over time," and other advanced techniques should easily allow China to locate and track a F-22.
3. Since the public unveiling of the F-117 and B-2 in 1988, China has had 24 years to prepare in the shooting down of a stealth aircraft.
4. I hope you guys aren't dumb enough to believe the public explanation that the F-22 was canceled due to budget pressure. Behind closed doors, the Senate oversight committee receives classified reports of the true strength of Chinese air defenses.
This is simple common sense. Why would the United States cancel its most technologically advanced F-22 air-superiority fighter? The obvious answer is the U.S. wouldn't cancel it unless the F-22 was no longer effective for its intended purpose of fighting a near-peer (i.e. China).
I can't prove it (because I don't have access to classified reports), but the only logical explanation is the U.S. government has concluded the F-22 is no longer a trump card against China. Hence, the production of the F-22 was intentionally halted. The F-22 is unsuitable, because of its short combat radius of 471 miles and/or the Chinese air defense network.
In conclusion, shooting down a F-22 is well within China's technological capability. That is the expected outcome of a near-peer in military technology (e.g. a country that can build its own J-20 Mighty Dragon all-aspect stealth fighter). However, the Serbs will always own the distinction of being the first to shoot down a at-the-time state-of-the-art stealth fighter.
"President Obama signed the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2010 in October 2009, without F-22 funding."