Date: 04-22-12 22:15
Huangyan crisis hints long-term tensions
10:50, April 22, 2012
What can we predict from the naval standoff between China and the Philippines near Huangyan Island in the South China Sea? The answer depends on the next action China is going to take.
China should be prepared to engage in a small-scale war at sea with the Philippines. Once the war erupts, China must take resolute action and deliver a clear message to the outside world that it does not want a war, but definitely has no fear of it. Nevertheless, such a war cannot put the South China Sea issue to an end.
Is China finaly ready to fight in S. China Sea?
Is China finally ready to fight? I think the time to fight has been long overdue. It should be obvious to anybody with any knowledge and perception of the reality of the S. E. Asian situation that war in simply unavoidable. The Chinese is irrationally fearful of the Americans to the point of being schizophrenics. The Chinese see the evil hand of America everywhere around China to choke China to death. Obviously, America does not harbor any friendship toward China. It is equally obvious that America would be happy to see China emasculated. But the reality is that America has been brought down by its bad economic policies. It is stretched too thin and can no longer be able to fight endless wars everywhere around the world. Especially, America can no longer succcessfully fight a war against China by any definition of success. And while America still maintains hundreds of thousands of troops around China and pose a serious threat, the threat is not potent. That is, China already has the power to fight America to a draw around China's neighborhood with catastrophic losses to both countries. And China now has the weapons to keep the war from reaching into Chinese mainland by stopping it at the surrounding seas and even take the war to America. And not only losses due to the actual fighting itself, America is even more concerned with economic losses. Given America is still in fragile economic conditions, it simply cannot risk a catastrophic war with the world's second biggest economic and military power - China.
Given this fact about America, Philippines simply cannot rely on it to come to its rescue in a war against China. Therefore, China is being unnecessarily fearful of American involvment and Philippines is being baselessly over-optimistic of getting American military backing. I hope China will now issue an ultimatum for Philippines to get out of Chinese territories or else China will arrest them and tow them back to China for trial. If they resist then they should be sunk. The problem will most probably not be over in the sense that Philippines will continue to test China's resolve to defend its territories. It will certainly continue to loudly to claim China's sovereign territories as its own. But once China has slapped it down, it will lose credibility with the world and with its own people. Aquino will lose the trust of his own people and they will vote him out next election. Certainly, if trouble continue to escalate, Philippines will lose economically. Many Filipino businessmen will be angry with Aquino and will try to get rid of him. In the end, peace will settle over the region only by China's leadership and its clear and certain defense of its sovereign territories which will stop the regional peoples from even beginning to try to invade China's territories.