Date: 04-10-12 01:25
Has a China hard landing come and gone?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/naeimi-says-fears-over-china-hard-landing-far-fetched/2012/04/02/gIQAtlm6rS_video.html An April 2, 2012 Bloomberg News video interview with Nader Naeimi, senior investment strategist at AMP Capital Investors, titled "Naeimi Says Fears Over China Hard Landing 'Far Fetched'" found at the Washington Post newspaper's web site.
I didn't watch the video so don't know what he said. Took too long to buffer so I gave it a pass. :Kobo shrugging his shoulders smilie:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46990157 An April 8, 2012 article titled "Forget Slowdown, China Already 'Re-accelerating': Economist" found at the CNBC News web site.
By: Jean Chua
China's economy is accelerating again and inflation will tick up by the second half of the year after bottoming out in February, according to David Carbon, Managing Director of Economics and Currencies at DBS Bank.
"We look at the numbers and China gave us a touch and go three, four months ago, so it's no longer a question of hard or soft landing," Carbon told CNBC on Monday. "China has already taken off again, as has most of Asia."
Gross domestic product (GDP) [cnbc explains] figures to be released Friday may indicate that the economy is expanding faster than the official target of 7.5 percent for 2012, Carbon added. "We look at the broad body of data including GDP, which will be out at the end of this week. China is already re-accelerating again."
The latest data on inflation and bank lending also reflect a strengthening Chinese economy. Inflation [cnbc explains] in China came in at a higher than expected 3.6 percent in March, according to government data Monday, after hitting 3.3 percent in February. China's big four state banks extended almost 300 billion yuan ($47.50 billion) in new local-currency loans in March, the official Securities Times reported on Saturday, citing unidentified sources.
Chinese authorities tightened credit last year in an effort to rein in inflation, which hit a three-year high of 6.5 percent in July, and rebalance an economy that's overly dependent on investment. In the fourth quarter of 2011, China's economy expanded 8.9 percent from a year earlier, the slowest growth since the second quarter of 2009, signaling that the government's measures might be working.
Still, analysts are increasingly bullish on China’s growth outlook. Song Seng Wun, Regional Economist at CIMB Research, said China could expand as much as 9 percent this year, much higher than the official target of 7.5 percent. Inflation could remain under the official target of 4 percent, he added.
"Yes, we have risks on the external front, we have seen those numbers come through," Song said. "Domestically, we have seen the lag effect of monetary tightening reducing demand - this whole targeted lending that we are looking at. Taken together, it will still be within 8-9 percent. We are looking at about 8.7 percent for the full year. For the first quarter, we are looking at 8.3 percent."
Food inflation should remain "relatively stable" at 8 to 9 percent, he said. In fact, inflation has already hit a bottom, economists say.
"Inflation is always lagging the economy, we've dropped down sharply last month to 3.29 (percent)," Carbon said. "People think it'll be up a couple of ticks this month, we're probably about there for inflation but I think that's true not just in China; I think every place in Asia is the same. We're at about bottom today, six months from now we're going be higher, not lower."
http://news.yahoo.com/china-returns-trade-surplus-march-xinhua-040027257.html An Agence France Presse (AFP) article titled "China returns to trade surplus in March" just posted to the Yahoo News web site about an hour and a half ago.
China said Tuesday it recorded a trade surplus last month, reversing a massive deficit in February, but exports were still weak owing to economic woes in major overseas markets.
The country recorded a trade surplus of $5.35 billion in March, as exports rose 8.9 percent to $165.66 billion for the month, Chinese customs said in a statement on its website.
Imports rose just 5.3 percent to $160.31 billion in March, it said.
The Asian giant's trade figures are politically sensitive, with Beijing and Washington embroiled in a long-running dispute over the value of the yuan, which US politicians say is kept artificially low to help Chinese exporters.
In February, China posted a huge deficit of $31.48 billion -- the largest in more than a decade -- as it felt the ripples from the debt crisis in Europe and the stuttering recovery in the United States.
Analysts had predicted a deficit of $3.2 billion for March, according Dow Jones Newswires.
"The March surplus figure is relatively small as the deterioration in overseas markets since last year has continued to affect China's exports," Liao Qun, China economist for Citic Bank International, told AFP.
The latest figures could provide hope that China will avoid a hard landing despite slowing exports, a major engine of growth for the economy.
Analysts widely expect China to record a trade surplus for the full year, helped by lower commodity prices and a recovery in exports.
The nation's trade surplus narrowed to $155.14 billion in 2011 from $181.51 billion in 2010, according to official figures and the ongoing export woes are expected to lead to a slowdown in the economy this year.
The government last month set a target for 7.5 percent economic growth for 2012, following 9.2 percent last year and 10.4 percent in 2010.
The government is due to release first quarter growth data on Friday, as well as other economic indicators for March.
The central bank in February cut the amount of cash banks must hold in reserve for the second time in three months as policymakers moved to increase lending and boost domestic consumption due to the economic slowdown.
But analysts say worries over inflation, which rebounded to a higher-than-expected 3.6 percent in March, could slow government moves to further loosen monetary policy.
Has a "hard landing" come and gone already?