Author: Liang2a
Date: 02-14-12 00:18
http://www.junshijia.com/article/201202/92204_2.html
习近平说，当前，国际形势继续发生复杂深刻变化，中美两国拥有更加广泛的共同
利益，肩负更加重要的共同责任。
Translation:
Xi Jinping said, "At the present the international situation continues to
be complex with deep changes. China and America have even more far reaching
mutual benefits to shoulder even more important mutual responsibilities.
在新的历史起点上，双方能否抓住机遇，化解挑战，建设好中美合作伙伴关系，事
关我们两国和世界的未来。
Translation:
Starting from a new historical point, whether both sides can grasp the opportunities,
resolve challenges and build a good Chinese-American partnership relationship,
it will impact on the future of our two countries and that of the world.
我期待著通过访问，与美方就此作出积极务实的探索，共同推动中美关系持续健康
稳定发展。我也期待著同美国各界人士广泛接触，对话交流，共议合作，厚植友谊。
Translation:
I expect through this visit to actively and realistically seek ways with
the American side to mutually continue to push forward healthy and secure
development. I also expect to have extensive contact with many people in
all sectors in America, to exchange conversation with them, to discuss cooperation,
and establish friendship.
------------------------------------------
Xi Jinping's visit to America has no historical significance.
Xi Jinping has arrived in Washington D. C. for a five day visit. The above
excerpt quoted what he said about this visit. However, given the history
of the last 30 to 40 years in the relationship of China and America the
current relationship is deteriorating with China losing economic benefits
in trading with the US while the US is increasing its longer trend of encircling
China and threatening China militarily. Xi is expected to be elected President
of China at the end of this year and begin his administration or rule of
China starting in March 15, 2013.
The position of the President of China is largely ceremonial one. However,
the President of China is also automatically the General Secretary of the
CPC and the Chairman of the Central Military Commission. As the General
Secretary of CPC, Xi will have enormous power of establishing the overall
policy and direction of the Chinese government and the Chinese nation.
As the Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Xi is the equivalent
of the American Commander in Chief. Xi has all the military power in his
hand. As the President of China, the General Secretary of the CPC and the
Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Xi will be the most powerful
man in China. It is because of the expectation of his future ascension
to these positions that makes his visit to America so significant.
For the last 30 to 40 years since the rule of Deng Xiaoping China has been
under the general philosophy of "Riding the American hegemonic ship and
quietly getting rich." Under this political philosophy was evolved the
method and logic of "Hiding the light" foreign relationship where China
pretend to be as weak as possible so as not to alarm its trading partners.
But it is obvious that these philosophies and methods are not really successful.
America had worked well with China for a couple of decades until its biggest
enemy, the former USSR, had collapsed. After its collapse in 1991 America
resumed its old policy of containing China with ever increasing hostility
resulting in the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. The first
thing Bush did in 2001 just a few days after his assumption of office, he
ordered the knocking down of a Chinese jet fighter inside China's EEZ.
No doubt the hostilities against China would have intensified strongly had
not the 911 incident happened. Then for a decade America was preoccupied
with Iraq and Afghanistan. And China was given a reprieve of a decade in
which to strengthen its military. Today, China has just about all the military
technologies that America has and a few that even America does not have
such as the ASBM, DF-21D, that can hit large ships some 2,000 km or more
away with deadly accuracy guided by China's own indigenously developed satellites.
And China's air force, especially its fighters have reached comparable
level of the US such as the J-20 stealth fighter which is rated even superior
to America's F-22. While America still has superior numbers the gap is
narrowing fast. It is obvious that China is accelerating the building of
many more arms such as fighters, missiles of all types, nuclear submarines
of many types, aircraft carriers and all kinds of naval vessels, etc.
And given China's rapidly increasing economy there is much more money now
than ever before in the last 60 years to allow for the deployment of many
more arms. In purchasing power parity terms, China's GDP has already exceeded that of the US by the end of 2011. China's GDP was 47.2 trillion yuan which in nominal terms based on the nominal exchange rate of 6.3 yuan per dollar was only $7.5 trillion and significantly less than America's $15 trillion GDP at end of 2011. But in PPP terms with the exchange rate of 3 yuan per dollar, the 47.2 trillion yuan translated into $15.7 trillion which is clearly bigger than the American GDP at end of 2011. If the Chinese economy expands 8% in 2012 then its yuan GDP will be some 51 trillion yuan by end of 2012. Its PPP GDP in dollars will be $17 trillion and some $2 trillion bigger
than America's 2012 GDP. It is much more accurate to use the PPP GDP because China can build its own arms without needing any foreign hard currencies such as dollar to pay for the importation of any foreign arms. Therefore, the cost of China's arms deployment is best estimated in terms of yuan. And as China's technologies advance, especially due to the economies of scale, China's cost of arms will be significantly reduced. By 2020 China's
GDP in terms of yuan will be some 90 trillion yuan given a steady 8% growth.
In PPP dollar terms this is some $30 trillion while that of American GDP
will be only $18 trillion at best. This means that China can deploy almost
twice the number of arms of the US. That means if the US can deploy 10
aircraft carriers then China can afford to deploy 20. If the US can deploy
200 5th generation stealth fighters then China can deploy 400 of the same
quality fighters. And most significant of all, China can allocate twice
the amount of funding for technological R&D to forge ahead of America in
all technological sectors to develop sooner all the futuristic weapons such
as rail guns, particle beam weapons, laser guns, etc.
Of course, China must shift away from its current mode of economic development based on the export of labor intensive products which will logically keep Chinese people poor and China backward and weak. But if China shifts successfully away from exports and develop its domestic economy through the urbanization of the farmers or rural residents and increase their productivity through indigenously developed and owned technologies then China will have no problem in growing at least 8% per year for the next 30 years. This means China must reduce or even stop trading with the US to maximize its domestic development.
Given these economic, technological and military trends, it is obvious that
China's future does not depend on America as it has been for some 30 to
40 years. China can only grow by being independent economically. And China can only be secure by being militarily powerful enough to counter American forces. And given America's historical hostilities against the Chinese
people and the Chinese nation that verges on paranoid level if not psychotic
level it is not possible for the US to give up its hostilities against China. If Obama got reelected then its policy of encircling China will continue
and China and America will enter an era of cold war. If some Republican
got elected then the situation will become even worse with the distinct
possibility of a hot war. I see little incentives on America's side to
decrease its hostilities against China as it now sees China as its biggest
competitor as the strongest nation on earth. And as China's economy is
no longer dependent on exporting to America and its military is becoming
strong enough to counter American military threat, China is less and less
willing to make concessions to America. Even if Xi and the other Dengists
want to continue to ride the American hegemonic ship there are many patriotic Chinese who will condemn the shame and danger of this policy. In the end, China is set to chart its more independent path to national development.
The rational thing for America to do is to allow China to realize its normal
national aspiration of enriching its own people. But since America is determined not to allow China to develop to its fullest, it will do whatever it can to suppress China's growth. And therein the danger lies. In historical
perspective, the current visit of Xi has no significance at all.
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