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Why North Korea is a Gordian Knot

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Why North Korea is a Gordian Knot

Postby Martin Su » Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:56 pm

China has tried to persuade North Korea's Kim Jong Un to liberalize and modernize his economy. He has refused, because a more modern North Korea would eventually lead to his ouster. It would take about 15 years. Once the North Korean people lose their fear of Kim Jong Un, he will be removed from office and imprisoned for his crimes (e.g. killing too many people). To stay in power, Kim Jong Un will not liberalize or modernize North Korea's economy. The only way for a Stalinist regime to stay in power is to maintain Stalinist controls over a society. When you remove the Stalinist controls, Kim Jong Un is finished.

The US suggestion to bomb North Korea is not acceptable to China. China does not want millions of North Korean refugees. Thus, in the Fortune citation below, China is hinting that it may intervene in a US war against North Korea. We have a strange situation where North Korean nuclear missiles can hit China, but it is the United States that is threatening war against North Korea. China can live with a nuclear North Korea. However, it is the US (which is an ocean away) that is demanding a resolution.

When you look at the China-North Korea map, you can see that Beijing is only 400 miles (or 700 km) from the North Korean border. We are back to the same problem that existed during the Korean War (1950-1953). Beijing's bottom line is the United States must return to the 38th parallel, which is approximately the original North-South Korean border, after any military incursion into North Korea. China will not permit the United States (or its proxy South Korea) to control North Korea. China will not allow the United States Army to camp on the Yalu River, which is on the China-North Korea border. North Korea is a buffer state and China will not let the US eliminate the buffer.

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For the United States, heavily bombing North Korea and watching a Chinese military takeover is not acceptable. Instead of the primitive North Korean weapons stationed along the 38th parallel, China will bring in stealth fighters, modern radars, and thermonuclear missiles. Also, Japan will be extremely upset as China builds naval-ship and submarine bases along the eastern North Korean coast that will be aimed at Japan.

In conclusion, we have this Gordian Knot that defies a solution. Kim Jong Un can't modernize North Korea without being deposed. To maintain his Stalinist control, he has to paint the United States, Japan, and South Korea as threats. The US is upset with North Korean atomic weapon and missiles tests. However, the US doesn't want to bomb North Korea and watch a Chinese takeover. China prefers the status quo of peace, but is willing to use its military to prevent the US Army from camping on the Yalu River (in a rematch of the Korean War). All of the parties are stuck and the North Korean problem will probably be around for decades (similar to the unsolvable Israeli-Palestinian problem).
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China Hints That It May Back North Korea in the Event of a War | Fortune (December 6, 2017)

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Martin Su
 
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Re: Why North Korea is a Gordian Knot

Postby billz » Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:08 pm

trump and kim seem to make it look so difficult.. but in fact, there aint gonna
be no war! for this simple reason:

a. nuke-war.
this wont happen.

b. conventional-war
it will bring china into the game, as china has repeatedly indicated
that it will back nk if usa/sk attacks nk. china recently did an air wargame
near the korean peninsula.

therefore, nada.
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Re: Why North Korea is a Gordian Knot

Postby Liang1a » Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:56 pm

NK is a problem because Xi is too cowardly to stand up to Trump. All previous US prresidents were afraid of China due to the long shadow of Mao's victory in Korea. But Xi is such a coward that he threw NK under the bus which then emboldened Trump to increase tension and threats against NK. But in the end, Kim is much wiser and braver than Xi and will continue to deploy hundreds of nuclear missiles have demonstrated nuclear explosions and missiles that had reached 4000 km altitude. Once Kim has deployed hundreds of nuclear missiles that can travel 12,000 km and hit all parts of the continental US, the US will simmer down and leave NK alone. The alternative is to risk nuclear war that will devastate the US whatever the US can do to NK. It will destroy US if NK exploded even just a few 20 k ton nukes over a few american major cities such as New York, Washington DC, Baltimore, Chicago, etc. Even a few 20 k ton nukes will kill millions of americans. ( Two American atomic bombs of some 15 k tons each killed hundreds of japanese.) Once NK had killed millions of americans, it does not help the US to wipe out NK killing all 25 million NK people. So, as tense as the problem in NK is, it will be solved by Kim deploying hundreds of nuclear missiles which will probably happen within a year or two. And NK is also starting to test nukes on cruise missiles launched from Whiskey class submarines of which NK has at least 4.
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Re: Why North Korea is a Gordian Knot

Postby billz » Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:24 am

it's not that he disrespected xi or china, but rather he wanted to project himself
as a savior for the usa after the 8-yr disaster by obama as seen by the other 50%
of the ppl in the usa! he purposely used strategy and tactics that portray himself
as a bandito who was willing to shoot the mexicans, isis, china as a currency manipulator
etc etc.. so as to garner support from his "base"!
thats why he got elected!
once he came into power, the reality is different!
after talking to xi (when he visited the usa) and when trump was in china, and
previously his cabinet ppl had been to china months prior to trump visiting china,
trump learned the hard way that china and xi Cannot be bullied.
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Re: Why North Korea is a Gordian Knot

Postby Liang1a » Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:30 pm

billz wrote:it's not that he disrespected xi or china, but rather he wanted to project himself
as a savior for the usa after the 8-yr disaster by obama as seen by the other 50%
of the ppl in the usa! he purposely used strategy and tactics that portray himself
as a bandito who was willing to shoot the mexicans, isis, china as a currency manipulator
etc etc.. so as to garner support from his "base"!
thats why he got elected!
once he came into power, the reality is different!
after talking to xi (when he visited the usa) and when trump was in china, and
previously his cabinet ppl had been to china months prior to trump visiting china,
trump learned the hard way that china and xi Cannot be bullied.


First, only 26% of the american people voted for Trump and not the overinflated 50% billz claim. How can Trump even be supported by 50% of the american people when Clinton won more than 50% of the vote?

I don't care and it doesn't matter whether Trump intended to disrespect Xi or not. Trump's action is disrespectful to Xi and China. You don't accept the apologies of somebody who just slap you in the face.

And Xi is a stupid coward by throwing NK under the bus and went along with Trump and imposed all kinds of sanctions against NK. Whether the sanctions are just gestures without any harmful effect on NK is immaterial. The truth is as soon as Xi supported UN sanctions against NK, Xi has made China look like a weak coward. And the world sees Xi as being bullied by Trump.
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Re: Why North Korea is a Gordian Knot

Postby billz » Sat Dec 09, 2017 8:00 pm

not true at all. hillary won the so-called Majority votes only due to California! check it out.
if u remove cali out of the equation, trump trumped hillary lol.
also the 26% the u mentioned was completely wrong. what was that? oh yeah. another lol.

but the bottom line is, the election in the usa is based on Electoral College system.
u play by that game. there is nothign else in town.

on sanctions, both china and russia approved it to at the u.n. simply it is
only logical for countries to punish nk or other countries for their nuclear ambitions.
unless the worl is willing to accept more members in the exclusive nuke club,
then again thats the rule. furthermore, since nk is an Unstable country all the more
that nk should be watched and monitored. regarless if one likes jp or nor, or sk, just
imagine if u r a citizen of either country, would u not want to ban nk's nuke developments?
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Re: Why North Korea is a Gordian Knot

Postby Liang1a » Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:51 pm

Everybody knows that the way to untie a Gordian Know is to slash it with a sword. It is obviously stupid to try to untie a Gordian Knot by taking the knot apart by hand. This is why Xi is stupid to try to solve the NK tension diplomatically. Kim is the smart one by solving the US aggression by accelerating the development and deployment of nukes and missiles. By deploying hundreds of nuclear missiles, Kim would have slashed the US Gordian Knot with his nuclear sword.
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