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China grows stronger. The US grows weaker. Why?

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China grows stronger. The US grows weaker. Why?

Postby Martin Su » Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:09 pm

China's national power keeps growing. Relatively speaking, US national power is being diminished. Why?

President Donald Trump thinks it's the economy. Currently, China grows at 6.5% annually. In contrast, the US grows only at 2%. It doesn't take a genius to realize China will become the dominant economy in 15 years.

To fix the problem, President Trump canceled the TPP because the trade detriments (more imports) to the American economy was greater than the benefits (more exports).

President Trump is trying to remake America into a new China. He wants America to become a great manufacturing power and he's trying to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States.

The logic is sound. Economic strength leads to military strength. For example, China seems to outbuild the United States in large naval ships every year. Thus, growing the US economy above its long-term average of 2% is imperative.

However, China's exports ($2 trillion) are only a small part of the Chinese economy ($12 trillion). The bulk of China's economy is dependent on the internal domestic market.

Every year, China's domestic economy keeps growing robustly because there is a technological upgrade propagating from the advanced eastern coastal cities and inward into less-developed China. This process will continue until all of China is as developed as the coastal cities. Thus, China's nominal per-capita GDP will eventually catch up to the United States.

This means the most important metric in evaluating future Chinese and US economic power is population size.

China has a population of 1.4 billion people.
The US has a population of 0.3 billion people.

There is no way for the US to offset China's 4-times population advantage.

Let's look at all of the important metrics.

China (3,053 Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent) consumes 34% more total energy annually than the United States (2,273 MTOE) and this gap grows wider every year.

China (5,920 TeraWatt-hours) consumes 51% more electricity annually than the United States (3,913 TeraWatt-hours).

China (87,000 units) installs more industrial robots per year than the United States (31,400 units).

China produces and installs ($27.5 billion) more machine tools than the United States ($7.4 billion) every year.


It is obvious that China's overall economy experiences a higher rate of technological upgrade than the US every year. China invests more in industrial robots and machine tools.

As the Chinese per-capita technological investments move toward the US average, this diminishes the economic lead from the earlier American industrialization. China is catching up in per-capita levels of industrial robots and machine tools in its economy.

Since the China-US economic technological level is converging, this leaves population as the only determinant.

Since China's population is four times larger than the US, China's economy will keep growing until it is four times the US economy.
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Re: China grows stronger. The US grows weaker. Why?

Postby ChineseTiger1986 » Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:09 pm

Hey Martian, I have three questions to consult you:

First, China has developed the 100% flight simulator of the J-20 for the pilot training, and it does contain the WS-15 with the 3D thrust-vectoring nozzle. So this should mean that the J-20 has already reached its full specs, since the flight simulator has to come after the real aircraft with these features. It seems that China is trying to purposely hide the real specs of the J-20.

Second, China has built a land based model of the aircraft carrier nuclear reactor since 2015. The land based model has been completed in March 2016, and it has started to running on full power since May 2016. Do you think China's third AC will become a nuclear supercarrier? Since the third one has been postponed for the switch from the steam catapult to the EMALS, and now it got delayed again, most likely due the switch from the conventional propulsion to the nuclear propulsion.

Third, China's official media has revealed that China has successfully tested the JL-3 SLBM, and I guess it will likely match what you had said years ago that the Type 096 equipped with the JL-3 is definitely on the schedule to start its strategic patrol around 2020. And China has also revealed that its new submarine facility can simultaneously build two Type 096 and eight Type 095. And the Type 096 according to the Chinese media is rivalling the incoming Columbia class SSBN in every aspects or perhaps exceeding it. However, China manages to pull out a such sophisticated boomer much earlier than the Columbia class, just like the way that the Type 055 has humiliated the Arleigh Burke Flight III.

So you are right, most oversea Chinese members should lower down their tone a little bit, since the US is in bad mood right now, especially toward China. When China was weak, they didn't care what you said, but now China is becoming de facto the most sensitive subject in the US society, especially among the American elites who knows how powerful China really is.
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Re: China grows stronger. The US grows weaker. Why?

Postby Liang1a » Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:28 pm

China's national power keeps growing. Relatively speaking, US national power is being diminished. Why?

President Donald Trump thinks it's the economy. Currently, China grows at 6.5% annually. In contrast, the US grows only at 2%. It doesn't take a genius to realize China will become the dominant economy in 15 years.


There are many reasons why China's power will continue to increase relative to the US. The reasons are many. The most important is obviously economy. The Chinese economy has already become much bigger than the US in real purchasing power parity terms. A countr6ys' economy cannot expand and shrink overnight based on the rising and falling of the exchange rate. Obviously, the output of goods and services cannot increase and decrease overnight. The amount of rice and steel and number of students in schools and the number of patients in hospitals suddenly increase and decrease with the rising and falling of the exchange rate. Therefore, it is nonsense to gauge a country's economy based on the shifting exchange rate. And everybody knows that based on the PPP rate, China's economy has already overtaken the US by very significant margin at least 20% to 40% - $23 trillion to $27 trillion versus US $19 trillion.

With its much bigger economy which is still growing at a much faster rate, China's economy will continue to grow faster and therefore will continue to widen its margin against the US economy. China's ability to grow faster is not necessarily due to its wiser leadership implementing more enlightened policies. In fact, the Chinese leadership can be most accurately be described as a bunch of traitorous idiots. But since China's technological level is still very low and most of the Chinese people are still rural residents, China's productivity is still very low and therefore can be increased rapidly by upgrading from a lower level of existing technologies to a higher level of existing technologies with lower cost of investment. The US has already reached maximum level of technologies and therefore cannot increase its productivity except by upgrading to new technologies that as yet do not exist. Therefore, since the advancement of technologies is slow, US's increase in economic size is necessarily also slow.

With enlightened economic policies dedicated to the growth and development of its own vast domestic economy, China can easily grow at more than 7% average rate for the next 30 years. Then after having reached its maximum growth potential with the existing technologies, China's growth will also slow down to 2% in sync with its technological advancement. But as I said above, China's economic policies are very stupid by emphasizing exports and FDI which suppresses the advancement of its own domestic technologies and slows down the development of its own domestic growth and development by curtailing the urbanization of its rural residents. Even today there are still many people at the highest level of the Chinese government who try to suppress China's technological advancement by labeling indigenous R&D as wasteful "reinventing the wheel". And the excessive subsidies to the exports through the excessively high exchange rate is squandering some 8 trillion yuan or 10% of the Chinese GDP. Altogether the effect of exports and FDI is wasting some 20% to 30% of China's total economic output. With so much waste, it is obvious that China's economic growth cannot but slow down. I've said that China's growth will continue to slow to less than 5% by 2020 and down to less than 3% by 2025 unless Xi can quickly de-emphasize exports and FDI by cutting the exchange rate down to 3 yuan per dollar for exports while keeping the 7 yuan per dollar rate for import and capital flight, emigration, foreign tourism, foreign education, etc.

Mao had grown the Chinese economy at the average rate of 6.8% through wars, natural disasters, social turmoil, etc. and still managed to grow China's economy rapidly without any exports or FDI.

If China can maintain some larger growth than the US, then it can obviously be able to spend more for its military. If China can increase military spending to 2% of GDP then it can not only expand its military it can also help the growth of its domestic economy faster. Since China's cost for goods and services or purchasing power are still much lower than the US, China can deploy a much bigger military than the US even by spending the same amount of money in nominal terms. Chinese soldiers are paid about 1/5 of what a US soldier is paid. Chinese weapons cost about 1/3 to 1/2 of what US weapons cost. Therefore, if China can increase its military spending to 2% of GDP or 1.6 trillion yuan then its purchasing power for military is equivalent to some $500 billion to $800 billion or about the same as the US. And if China can increase its level of spending by some 7% per year then it will continue to rise over the US. Within 12 years, China's real GDP could reach some 160 trillion yuan. 2% of this is 3.2 trillion yuan and could be equivalent to $1 trillion or more of real purchasing power. Therefore, it is inevitable for China's military to be more powerful than the US within 12 to 15 years and can defeat the US military anywhere in the world.

China's increase in military power is especially dependent on its technological advancement. Therefore, as China's economy grows it can afford more R&D to advancement its technologies. And as its technologies advance, China can develop more advanced weapon systems such as new types of radars to detect stealth fighters, space station for anti-missile systems, spaceplane fighters, fast stealthy and deeper diving submarines, etc.

But all of these depends on what the Chinese leaders will do, especially Xi. But since Xi is a moron and a moral coward who always take the easiest way out, there is less and less hope for China to grow and become military powerful especially since Xi is cutting the size of the military and slowing the spending of the military. China like it had done many times in its long history will kill itself off by its many traitors. Xi will snuff China's economy, suppress China's technologies, turn China into an economic colony, and so kill off China. It will be like Song Dynasty where China was the richest, the most technologically advanced and the most militarily powerful country. And yet it slowly gave away its territories and finally got conquered and snuffed by the Mongols. The last emperor of Song was killed by his own Chinese general who surrendered to the Mongols because they saw no hope under the Song Dynasty.
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Re: China grows stronger. The US grows weaker. Why?

Postby Martin Su » Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:20 pm

ChineseTiger1986 wrote:Hey Martian, I have three questions to consult you:

First, China has developed the 100% flight simulator of the J-20 for the pilot training, and it does contain the WS-15 with the 3D thrust-vectoring nozzle. So this should mean that the J-20 has already reached its full specs, since the flight simulator has to come after the real aircraft with these features. It seems that China is trying to purposely hide the real specs of the J-20.

Second, China has built a land based model of the aircraft carrier nuclear reactor since 2015. The land based model has been completed in March 2016, and it has started to running on full power since May 2016. Do you think China's third AC will become a nuclear supercarrier? Since the third one has been postponed for the switch from the steam catapult to the EMALS, and now it got delayed again, most likely due the switch from the conventional propulsion to the nuclear propulsion.

Third, China's official media has revealed that China has successfully tested the JL-3 SLBM, and I guess it will likely match what you had said years ago that the Type 096 equipped with the JL-3 is definitely on the schedule to start its strategic patrol around 2020. And China has also revealed that its new submarine facility can simultaneously build two Type 096 and eight Type 095. And the Type 096 according to the Chinese media is rivalling the incoming Columbia class SSBN in every aspects or perhaps exceeding it. However, China manages to pull out a such sophisticated boomer much earlier than the Columbia class, just like the way that the Type 055 has humiliated the Arleigh Burke Flight III.

So you are right, most oversea Chinese members should lower down their tone a little bit, since the US is in bad mood right now, especially toward China. When China was weak, they didn't care what you said, but now China is becoming de facto the most sensitive subject in the US society, especially among the American elites who knows how powerful China really is.

Hi ChineseTiger1986, my old friend.

China has publicly said the WS-15 (Chinese equivalent of the American F-22 engine) will be publicly revealed between 2018-2020. Therefore, there should be functioning prototypes of the WS-15 engine now. Global Security reported the Chinese WS-15 engine core was first tested in April 2005. After over a decade, the WS-15 will soon make its debut.

Regarding aircraft carriers, China laid out its conservative plan for construction. The first objective was to completely rebuild the Liaoning. The steel superstructure was purchased from Ukraine, but every installed system was Chinese on the Liaoning aircraft carrier. The second step was to build a new Liaoning with Chinese steel superstructure. It's possible China may build a second new Liaoning. Alternatively, China may move on to a new nuclear-powered supercarrier. In any case, China's third or fourth carrier will probably be a nuclear-powered supercarrier.

China's DF-41 10-MIRV ICBM has been successfully tested multiple times. In fact, there are pictures showing the deployment of DF-41 ICBM brigades all over China. The JL-3 SLBM is a navalized version of China's DF-41 ICBM. The JL-3 SLBM should be ready by now. However, we have to wait until China releases pictures of the new Type 096 SSBN that carries the JL-3 SLBM.

I think Chinese members should tone down their posts regarding China's military. China's weapon systems have become extremely modern and it makes westerners nervous. Talking more about economic cooperation (such as free-trade-agreements) is friendlier and probably a better idea.

Finally, the only real weapon in the US arsenal that China currently doesn't have is the American B-2 bomber. China has said it will unveil the Chinese H-2 stealth bomber in 2025. After 2025, I think China can legitimately claim to match the US military across the board in both sophistication of weapons and quantity (such as the number of large naval ships).
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Re: China grows stronger. The US grows weaker. Why?

Postby ChineseTiger1986 » Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:29 pm

Martin Su wrote:
ChineseTiger1986 wrote:Hey Martian, I have three questions to consult you:

First, China has developed the 100% flight simulator of the J-20 for the pilot training, and it does contain the WS-15 with the 3D thrust-vectoring nozzle. So this should mean that the J-20 has already reached its full specs, since the flight simulator has to come after the real aircraft with these features. It seems that China is trying to purposely hide the real specs of the J-20.

Second, China has built a land based model of the aircraft carrier nuclear reactor since 2015. The land based model has been completed in March 2016, and it has started to running on full power since May 2016. Do you think China's third AC will become a nuclear supercarrier? Since the third one has been postponed for the switch from the steam catapult to the EMALS, and now it got delayed again, most likely due the switch from the conventional propulsion to the nuclear propulsion.

Third, China's official media has revealed that China has successfully tested the JL-3 SLBM, and I guess it will likely match what you had said years ago that the Type 096 equipped with the JL-3 is definitely on the schedule to start its strategic patrol around 2020. And China has also revealed that its new submarine facility can simultaneously build two Type 096 and eight Type 095. And the Type 096 according to the Chinese media is rivalling the incoming Columbia class SSBN in every aspects or perhaps exceeding it. However, China manages to pull out a such sophisticated boomer much earlier than the Columbia class, just like the way that the Type 055 has humiliated the Arleigh Burke Flight III.

So you are right, most oversea Chinese members should lower down their tone a little bit, since the US is in bad mood right now, especially toward China. When China was weak, they didn't care what you said, but now China is becoming de facto the most sensitive subject in the US society, especially among the American elites who knows how powerful China really is.

Hi ChineseTiger1986, my old friend.

China has publicly said the WS-15 (Chinese equivalent of the American F-22 engine) will be publicly revealed between 2018-2020. Therefore, there should be functioning prototypes of the WS-15 engine now. Global Security reported the Chinese WS-15 engine core was first tested in April 2005. After over a decade, the WS-15 will soon make its debut.

Regarding aircraft carriers, China laid out its conservative plan for construction. The first objective was to completely rebuild the Liaoning. The steel superstructure was purchased from Ukraine, but every installed system was Chinese on the Liaoning aircraft carrier. The second step was to build a new Liaoning with Chinese steel superstructure. It's possible China may build a second new Liaoning. Alternatively, China may move on to a new nuclear-powered supercarrier. In any case, China's third or fourth carrier will probably be a nuclear-powered supercarrier.

China's DF-41 10-MIRV ICBM has been successfully tested multiple times. In fact, there are pictures showing the deployment of DF-41 ICBM brigades all over China. The JL-3 SLBM is a navalized version of China's DF-41 ICBM. The JL-3 SLBM should be ready by now. However, we have to wait until China releases pictures of the new Type 096 SSBN that carries the JL-3 SLBM.

I think Chinese members should tone down their posts regarding China's military. China's weapon systems have become extremely modern and it makes westerners nervous. Talking more about economic cooperation (such as free-trade-agreements) is friendlier and probably a better idea.

Finally, the only real weapon in the US arsenal that China currently doesn't have is the American B-2 bomber. China has said it will unveil the Chinese H-2 stealth bomber in 2025. After 2025, I think China can legitimately claim to match the US military across the board in both sophistication of weapons and quantity (such as the number of large naval ships).


As for the aircraft carrier, China has currently two operational shipyards to build the aircraft carriers which is similar to the US from the 1950-1960s when you got both New York shipbuilding and Newport News shipbuilding to build the aircraft carriers simultaneously. And in the 2025 time frame, it is possible for China to commission multiple aircraft carriers, and one of these carriers has to be nuclear powered.

As for the nuclear submarine, China is likely planning to build 12 Type 096 SSBNs and 24 Type 095 SSNs. Since the Type 095 SSN is equivalent to the modernized Seawolf class which is very expensive to build. Therefore, China has also developed a new type of mini SSN that displaces around 4000 tons, and it is being reportedly mentioned to be even less expensive than the AIP subs thanks to the new generation of miniaturized nuclear reactor developed by China.

As for the H-20 stealth bomber, there are a lot of rumors that suggest it will have its maiden flight in this coming November, and the deployment is scheduled to be around 2020-2025.

China's EMALS is also reported to be superior to its American counterpart. And the rear admiral Ma Weiming believes that the EMALS to launch the aircrafts on the supercarrier is just a small step, his more ambitious goal is to accomplish a rocket launch system based on the EMALS by 2020s. Hence, this will become a revolutionary step for the mankind in the space program. Also, professor Ma's DC integrated electrical system has bested the AC integrated electrical system developed by the US/UK. The Type 055 is becoming a success, while the Type 45 has been grounded, the DDG-1000 has trimmed from down 32 to 3, the Arleigh Burke Flight III still has experienced a lot of difficulties to field its dual band AESA radars. The rear admiral Ma Weiming is the genius brain that triggers a new wave of technological revolution, whilst the US desperately needs a genius brain like him. In the past, they got von Braun, that's why they won the space race against the USSR, but they are not lucky this time in a military race against China.

China now has promised the equal treatment for the non-mainland Chinese, that's why so many talents from the Greater China regions and oversea are also coming to contribute for the Mainland China. I think the US is not clever to mistreat the Chinese Americans, since they will rather give the Indians the promotion to the CEO status in the Silicon Valley rather to the less-boastful but more diligent Chinese Americans. Now the Chinese Americans feels being discriminated by both liberals and conservatives, so many of them rather return to China and to contribute for their native motherland. See how the Chinese Americans consist only 1% of the total US population, yet its technological contribution is completely out of proportion. It is a strategic blunder for the US society from both left to right to marginalize the Chinese American community. If they treat the Chinese Americans in a more proper way, then they would eventually discover the talents like the rear admiral Ma Weiming and professor Pan Jianwei among the Chinese American population, but now the US got the bragging Indian CEO to ruin everything they have built so far.
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Re: China grows stronger. The US grows weaker. Why?

Postby yewtai » Wed Nov 01, 2017 2:20 am

Hei - - - what useful thing China has invented this 21st century ????????

For better or worse, many very consequential inventions were invented in the United States. There are very few countries that can rival American innovation in the last 200 (or 20) years. Some important innovations that will help propel humanity forward that have come out of the United States:

Commercialization of the electric car
Commercialization of space travel
The green revolution of the 50s and 60s is responsible for our current capabilities to feed 7+ billion people, and was centered in the United States
57% of all new medicines are created by U.S. based companies

The personal computer was invented in the United States
The internet was invented by an American
Wifi was invented by AT&T in 1991
The automobile was first commercialized by American companies
The first oil well was dug in 1859 in Pennsylvania

The Smartphone was first commercialized by American companies
The telephone was invented by an American

The plane was invented by an American
Electricity was discovered by an American
The transistor (which is necessary for literally every electronic you own to function) was invented by an American

3D printing was invented by an American
The hearing aid was invented by an American
The microwave was invented by an American
GPS technology was invented by Americans

Most popular western social networks were started by Americans
Email was invented by an American
The atomic bomb was invented by the U.S. government

So there you have it. Without American innovation we would not have many of the useful tools that we currently have today.
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Re: China grows stronger. The US grows weaker. Why?

Postby Martin Su » Wed Nov 01, 2017 4:40 am

yewtai wrote:Hei - - - what useful thing China has invented this 21st century ????????

For better or worse, many very consequential inventions were invented in the United States. There are very few countries that can rival American innovation in the last 200 (or 20) years. Some important innovations that will help propel humanity forward that have come out of the United States:

Commercialization of the electric car
Commercialization of space travel
The green revolution of the 50s and 60s is responsible for our current capabilities to feed 7+ billion people, and was centered in the United States
57% of all new medicines are created by U.S. based companies

The personal computer was invented in the United States
The internet was invented by an American
Wifi was invented by AT&T in 1991
The automobile was first commercialized by American companies
The first oil well was dug in 1859 in Pennsylvania

The Smartphone was first commercialized by American companies
The telephone was invented by an American

The plane was invented by an American
Electricity was discovered by an American
The transistor (which is necessary for literally every electronic you own to function) was invented by an American

3D printing was invented by an American
The hearing aid was invented by an American
The microwave was invented by an American
GPS technology was invented by Americans

Most popular western social networks were started by Americans
Email was invented by an American
The atomic bomb was invented by the U.S. government

So there you have it. Without American innovation we would not have many of the useful tools that we currently have today.

What does your post have to do with my thread topic?

My thread topic is about the current balance of economic strength between China and the US. Also, the implication is that the population difference will allow China to keep growing stronger into the future while American economic strength weakens in relative comparison.

Your comment has to do with the past. This thread is not about the past. It is about the present and the future.
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Re: China grows stronger. The US grows weaker. Why?

Postby hohoyan888 » Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:08 pm

Martin,

I agree with you. I have no idea what Yewtai argued about.

With all kind of sanctions from the Western in not letting the Chinese have the latest technologies e.g. even Intel chipsets, it will take the Chinese a while to catch up but I expect them to catch up and to pass the West eventually as long as they still have the centralized government planning i.e. still stay as a Communist country with Chinese characteristics. Very hard to beat any unified country with an well planned goal and single vision. China definitely has to keep her state enterprise companies if she wants to beat the West. That is why the West keep forcing China to eliminate her state enterprise system.

The Japanese never had any sanctions from the West in the past. It is much easier for them to get in par with the West.

China, IMHO, didn't even start to move forward until the late 90s. They were heavily sanctioned after the Tiananmen Square incident - http://www.nbr.org/publications/element.aspx?id=73. As of today, a lot advanced technological products from the West and Japan are not allowed to be sold to China. I would say that China started her process in 2000. 17 years is not enough for any 3rd world country to catch up, especially with those heavy sanctions.

I would expect by 2025, the situation may be different.
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Re: China grows stronger. The US grows weaker. Why?

Postby yewtai » Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:54 am

It is nothing to do with China capability to develop indigenous technology using Chinese talent only, which China has 100,000 genius.

Don"t be too optimistic China will go through beyond 2020 smooth sailing without a major economic set back.

It has to do with white christian in America who will not want to give up their top dog status without a fight. Anglo americans will create false flag military operation in south china sea or indian ocean, to disrupt commerce flow of goods to China from the West, if the Petrodollar hegemony is weakened seriously.

Is the petrodollar hegemony is being threatened now by China ? Some say it will be and US dollar will soon be toppled as global reserve currency. Nobody know when, but the process already started.

US can never be allowed to grow weaker. If US become weaker, US dollar will lose the global reserve currency status. If that happens America empire will dies, which is not possible without WW III.

If the China leaders still did not understand the petrodollar hegemony, and the whys, then there will be terrible war with US. To avoid war with US, China have to give in to US demands, which is to reduce China trade surplus with US, by importing more from US.

The US and China relationship is broken now, and China have to give in to repair it. If not China will lose the biggest consumer market in the world, the US.

Alternatively, as brilliantly suggested by Liang, China must reduce export to US, and close all foreign factories, and focus on internal development just like Mao did. China must get out of the mentality of : to get rich is glorious and get into materialistic living which damage the environment. China can do it without western/american technology.
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